By Chapala Chikoyi
As Zambia’s Tobacco Control
Bill 2025 goes to Parliament, we must confront an uncomfortable truth: a
tobacco law without strong taxation measures is incomplete — and dangerously
weak.
For years, the tobacco industry
has relied on one powerful argument to resist stronger regulation: “If you
raise taxes, illicit trade will increase.” It is a familiar script. It is
repeated in media briefings, policy meetings, and closed-door lobbying. And it
is misleading.
The evidence from across Africa
shows that well-designed tobacco taxation reduces smoking, increases government
revenue, and does not automatically fuel illicit trade. What fuels illicit
trade is weak governance — not high excise.
THE GLOBAL STANDARD IS
CLEAR
Under the World Health
Organization’s MPOWER package of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco
Control, raising tobacco taxes is the single most effective tobacco control
measure available to governments.
When excise taxes increase,
cigarette prices rise. Youth initiation declines. Smokers quit or reduce
consumption. Government revenue increases.
Yet taxation remains the least
implemented pillar of tobacco control in many countries — often because of
industry pressure.
SOUTH AFRICA SHOWS
WHAT WORKS
In South Africa, significant
excise increases beginning in the early 1990s led to higher cigarette prices, a
dramatic decline in smoking, and increased government revenue. Consumption fell
sharply. Revenue rose steadily.
Most importantly, smoking
declined most among low-income groups — those who suffer the highest burden of
tobacco-related diseases. That is not economic harm. That is public health
protection.
KENYA DEFEATED THE ILLICIT
TRADE ARGUMENT
In 2013, Kenya introduced a
modern track-and-trace system — the Excisable Goods Management System (EGMS).
The results were decisive: illicit trade declined significantly, revenue
increased markedly, illegal factories were shut down, and enforcement improved.
Taxes increased. Smuggling
decreased. Revenue grew.
The lesson is simple: strong
systems — not low taxes — defeat illicit trade.
THE REALITY IN
ZAMBIA
In
Zambia, tobacco-related diseases — cancer, cardiovascular illness, chronic
respiratory disease — continue to strain our health system.
Low-income
communities carry the heaviest burden. They have the least access to
healthcare. They are the most price-sensitive. They are the most vulnerable to
cheap tobacco products. And they suffer disproportionately from tobacco-related
disease.
If
the Tobacco Bill goes to Parliament without a strong taxation component, Zambia
will have missed a critical opportunity. Regulation without taxation limits
impact. Warnings without affordability measures reduce effectiveness.
Enforcement without price intervention leaves demand intact.
A
comprehensive tobacco law must include strong excise taxation that reduces
affordability, licensing across the supply chain, modern tax stamps and
track-and-trace systems, severe penalties for large-scale smuggling, and
inter-agency cooperation. Without these, we risk passing a law that appears
strong — but leaves the core driver of tobacco consumption untouched:
affordability.
PARLIAMENT MUST CHOOSE
EVIDENCE OVER FEAR
The tobacco industry will
continue to argue that higher taxes increase illicit trade. But evidence from
across Africa shows the opposite. Good governance reduces illicit trade. What
is at stake is not just revenue. It is youth addiction, cancer wards, stroke
units, families pushed into poverty by medical bills, lost productivity, and
preventable deaths. The Tobacco Bill before Parliament is more than
legislation. It is a test of political courage.
Zambia does not need to choose
between revenue and health. Evidence shows we can achieve both. But only if we
are bold enough to include strong tobacco taxation in our national response.
The real danger is not higher tobacco taxes. The real danger is passing a law
that does not go far enough — and paying for that weakness with Zambian lives.
The Tobacco Control Bill 2025
goes to the floor of Parliament just before the House is dissolved for
elections. It may be up to our Members of Parliament to ensure that critical
provisions — particularly those protecting public health and addressing
affordability — are not lost in the process.
While the MPOWER framework
highlights raising taxes as a core strategy, this component is absent in the
current Bill due to persistent industry interference.
Nonetheless, passing
the Bill in its current form is still a right step. Policy and legislation are
processes, and the Tobacco Control Bill 2025 represents a foundational
milestone on which future measures — including robust taxation can build
on.
Our task now is to safeguard
this progress, continue evidence-based advocacy, and ensure that future
amendments strengthen the law to fully protect the health of Zambians,
especially the most vulnerable.
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